NEW YORK, NY.- Anselm Kiefer is one of the most important and challenging artists of the 20th century. Through the use of unconventional mediums, his works are an unflinching examination of the human experience. With the newly unveiled permanent installation at the Pantheon in Paris and 4 new monumental paintings on display by Gagosian at Le Bourget, the artist is having something of a renaissance. ARTBnk reviewed 10 of Kiefer’s works offered in Evening and Day Sales at Sotheby's, Christie's, and Phillips in the second half of 2020 to measure the current performance of the artist's market as we begin 2021. Based on the final sale prices, we'll examine the performance of the low and middle value segments of the artist's market.

This report is generated by utilizing presale fair market values—ARTBnk Value—for each individual work of art which is determined through ARTBnk's unique AI valuation methodology which combines thousands of quantitative and qualitative data points with systemic regression analysis.



Totals

At the end of March 2020 the ARTBnk Value algorithm was adjusted based on a number of broad based economic indicators. This resulted in ARTBnk Values in aggregate being reduced by 20% from values prior to the pandemic. As we can see from the graph below, the recent sales in aggregate did not reach their total presale ARTBnk Value and fell short of the aggregated auction house buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate as well. This would appear to indicate that Kiefer's market underperformed both ARTBnk and the auction house specialists’ expectations.



Explaining Outliers

It’s not uncommon that a handful of lots achieve results well above market expectations, but these outliers are generally not representative of an overall market shift for an artist. While none of the works by Kiefer achieved outlier status during this period, it is worth noting that only 2 works exceeded the buyer's premium adjusted mean estimate and only one of those works exceeded the ARTBnk Value, indicative of the lackluster performance we see in the market sectors to follow.

Middle Market

Lots achieving a sold price between $100k and $1m, representing the middle market, comprised only 4 works, but the majority of value sold and broadly follow the overall results for the period. The aggregated sold price of $2,026,866 fell short of the aggregated presale ARTBnk Value of $2,584,890 by -21.5% .



Buy-in Rate

The buy-in rate for the works analyzed here was 2 out of 10 lots offered (20%). This is an average rate, but it is worth noting that the two works to pass were the highest estimated works offered in the season, with Der Wolken Heitere Stimmung failing to sell with an estimate of $700,000-$1,000,000 and Dein Aschenes Haar Sulamith similarly not living up to its estimate of $500,00-700,000.

Low End Market

The low end market, consisting of 4 lots garnering sold prices below $100k, failed to meet market expectations even more dramatically than the middle market. The aggregated sold price of $104,854 was below the aggregated presale ARTBnk Value of $202,257 by -49%.





Anselm Kiefer (b. 1945) A work from the permanent Pantheon exhibition, Paris.

Conclusion

There’s no sugarcoating the fact that Anselm Kiefer works offered at auction failed to meet expectations in 2020. However, it is too early to sound the alarm on the artist’s market as a whole, as Kiefer’s underperformance in 2020 certainly requires a bit of context. Previous ARTBnk analysis has illustrated that the financial climate of 2020 seriously impaired the low end and middle markets, while high end sales with price tags greater than $1 million completely buoyed sold price performance both against presale ARTBnk Values and auction house estimates. Kiefer had no sales above the $1 million threshold, and while his drop below expectations in the low end and middle markets was more precipitous, it still followed the trend of considerably down markets in those sectors.

There also remains the possibility that holders of Anselm Kiefer works sat tight on higher quality works in 2020 hoping for more stable financial markets and in anticipation of the bump the Pantheon and Gagosian exhibits could bring. Low end market performance, good or bad, will never swing the pendulum on an artist’s cache as far as high profile, high value, and buzzworthy sales, acquisitions or exhibitions. Will this year’s Kiefer market see the return of seven figure results, completely absent in 2020? Stay tuned to ARTBnk in 2021 to understand how Anselm Kiefer performs across market sectors and if the powerful impact of his work continues to demand the attention of collectors worldwide.